/

December, 2015

now browsing by month

 

It’s A Bird… It’s A Plane…NO It’s EURO…

At the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.05%, 0.30% and -0.20% respectively.

This created quite a steer in the market as EUR/USD JUMPED TO 1.0980 from the days low of 1.0522.

GBP/USD also joined the rally running to the upside and plotting a high at 1.5159.

Could this be the possible come back for euro or is it just another selling opportunity .. well all the answer would be given once the most anticipated interest rate hike would be delivered by US.

As of today all eyes will eager to see the NFP figures.

Technical levels for today

EUR/USD

eurusd 3rd dec 2015

Upside : 1.0940 and 1.0980 a break above this level could check the psychological level of 1.1000.

Down side: 1.0860 and 1.0820

 

GBP/USD

Up side:  1.5122 , 1.5155 and 1.5195.

Down side: 1.5080 , 1.5055 and 1.5025.

 

 

 

Calm before the storm.

The calm before the ECB storm’ appeared to emerge the main theme in Asia, with the majors trading within limited range in anticipation of huge volatility stirred by the ECB decision. While dust settled over Yellen’s comments overnight and traders once gear up for more Yellen in the day ahead. On the FX front, the sentiment around the greenback remained lifted amid optimistic remarks from Yellen and solid US ADP jobs data. The Fed Chair Yellen commented on Wednesday that the US economic outlook has improved than previously seen and that the Fed remains on track for a rate lift-off this month with the focus now on Friday’s NFP report, the last one before FOMC decision on Dec 16.

Yesterday GBP/USD went to the pits testing 1.4895 levels. while EUR/USD staying  in the range 1.0632 and 1.0550.

The big new today would be EUR :Minimum Bid Rate and ECB Press Conference.

US: Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Yellen Testifies and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR TODAY

EUR/USD

upside : First resistance at 1.0632, followed by 1.0667 and 1.0720

down side: First support at 1.0550 , followed by  1.0510 and 1.0470 a break below this level  would trigger the free fall.

 

GBP/USD

Upside :  First resistance at 1.4956 followed by 1.488 and 1.5015.

Down side: 1.4895 , 1.4854 a break below this level would test 1.4010 level.

Market view 02/12/2015

As the market started off with Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which was better than expect , there is less movement in the market as we have much too look out for today.

GBP: Construction PMI to

USD :ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

CAD: BOC Rate Statement and Overnight Rate

but most of the trader would be waiting for Federal reserve Chair Janet Yellen speech as they would attempt to decipher interest rate clues.

 

Technical levels to look out for

AUD/USD

Upside : 0.7345 and resistance on  0.7382 a break above this level would take the pair to .07407 and 0.7435.

Down side: first support is at 0.7272 followed by 0.7250 and 0.7220.

 

GBP/USD

Upside : resistance at 1.5125 and 1.5167 a break above this level would take cable to 1.5200

Down side : First support is at  1.5050 and 1.4998 a break below this level would take GBP/USD to 1.4655 and 1.4925.

 

EUR/USD

It is very difficult to take a stance for EUR/USD as there are every important feeds yet to come form ECB Press Conference and bid rate which would be released tomorrow that could surprise the market. Decision on QE is much awaited and not to forget rate hike by US Fed is also yet to come on 17th (12:30 GMT+5).

 

As of today it is likely that ADP Non-Farm Employment Change would be in the expected range of 191k to 200k.

EUR/USD

Upside :First resistance at 1.0640 followed  1.0668 and 1.0720.

Down side : First support at 1.0592 and 1.0562.

Whats with pound?

After breaking the 1.500 level GBP/USD registered a SIX MONTHS LOW of 1.4994. Cable not only recovered from the low but also managed to close above 1.5050 level.

1/12/2015 all eyes would be on BOE (bank stress test) , Manufacturing PMI and comments form BOE Governor Mark Carney.

Technical levels to look out for GBP/USD

At present GBU/USD is trading at 1.5080

Upside : 1.5125 which is the immediate resistance and a break above this level could lead to  1.5167

Downside : 1.5030 and previous day low of 1.4994 is like possible.

What to expect AUD/USD?

The latest upbeat Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI report coupled with the risk-on rally in the equities provided a double booster shot to the Australian dollar, driving the AUD/USD through the roof towards the key 0.7286 levels (Nov 25 High). More so, the recovery in the commodity prices also supported the renewed bids in the Aussie.

KEY LEVELS TO WATCH OUT FOR.

The pair tested Nov 25 High at 0.7286 and now hovers near 0.7275 region, with the immediate resistance at 0.7299 (Oct 23 High), above which gains could be extended to strong hurdle located at 0.7365/66 (Oct 13 & 15 High) levels. On the flip side, should the RBA statement sound dovish or talk down on the AUD level, the price would drop to the immediate support is seen at 0.7220 (20-DMA). Selling pressure is likely to intensify below the last, dragging the Aussie to 0.7169 (100-DMA).

^